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DYNAPRED'S SEASONAL (FIRST-STAGE) MODEL PREDICTIONS:
Continental United States (CONUS) predictions are provided for each of the 344 climate divisions in one of three categories--Average, Above Average, or
Below Average—as shown in the legend on each chart. Primary components of total monthly mean temperature and accumulated precipitation are shown. Navigation bars above
access each page. Beginning July (200207) and August (200208), the YYYYMM pages contain both temperature and precipitation graphics immediately followed by respective major features narrative description for
that month.
DynaPred's Seasonal or 1st Stage Model prediction tells about half the story (see About..Methods); but the most important first half—namely the dynamic trend
on a month to month basis for each climate division. Adjacent climate divisions showing either similar trends or patterns in contrast are to be regarded as corroboration of general patterns for a given
predicted month. Adjacent climate division predictions are reasonably expected to blend into each other; a pattern of Average and either Above or Below Average can reasonably be expected to mutually show some
adjacent division characteristics on subdivision by subdivision basis. If sharp contrasts occur for adjacent climate divisions and are corroborated by adjacent climate divisions then this suggests likely
strong contrasts as is observed more with precipitation than temperature.
DynaPred's 1st Stage prediction accuracy Performance is evaluated with comparison to NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center over the continental US. CPC's predictions are for 15 days ahead of prediction month's startday. DynaPred's predictions were made in 2002 and 200301. So the comparison is between a month ahead product by the NWS/CPC and a 60 month ahead and counting product by DynaPred. Compared climate variables are monthly mean temperature (MMT) and monthly cumulative precipitation.
The full DynaPred Detailed Model adds the other half of the story and provides higher accuracy, spatial and temporal resolution required for certain
uses. Oregon CD#1 (Coastal) precipitation beginning 200101 is an ongoing example Such services are available on a contractual basis.
The following FREE temperature and precipitation predictions have been made available to the public via this website and other distribution means near
middle of the preceding month predicted. The most current month is also available under What's New. Public use and further distribution is permitted with appropriate source attribution as already contained in the GIF file as released (JPG
available upon request). Scheduled release dates (Tuesday prior to third Thursday) and times are shown, but are subject to change:
Please click on the navigation bar above in order to select the desired month as released.
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