Dynamic Predictables LLC,   Columbia, MO 65205-1365, USA       dynapred@dynapred.com   tele +1.573.815.0520                        multi-year, site-specific and regional climate prediction                 

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DYNAPRED'S SEASONAL (FIRST-STAGE) MODEL PREDICTIONS:

Continental United States (CONUS) predictions are provided for each of the 344 climate divisions in one of three categories--Average, Above Average, or Below Average—as shown in the legend on each chart.   Primary components of total monthly mean temperature and accumulated precipitation are shown.      Navigation bars above access each page.  Beginning July (200207) and August (200208), the YYYYMM pages contain both temperature and precipitation graphics immediately followed by respective major features narrative description for that month.

DynaPred's Seasonal or 1st Stage Model prediction tells about half the story (see About..Methods); but the most important first half—namely the dynamic trend on a month to month basis for each climate division.  Adjacent climate divisions showing either similar trends or patterns in contrast are to be regarded as corroboration of general patterns for a given predicted month.  Adjacent climate division predictions are reasonably expected to blend into each other; a pattern of Average and either Above or Below Average can reasonably be expected to mutually show some adjacent division characteristics on subdivision by subdivision basis.  If sharp contrasts occur for adjacent climate divisions and are corroborated by adjacent climate divisions then this suggests likely strong contrasts as is observed more with precipitation than temperature.
DynaPred's 1st Stage prediction accuracy Performance is evaluated with comparison to NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center over the continental US.  CPC's predictions are for 15 days ahead of prediction month's startday.   DynaPred's predictions were made in 2002 and 200301.  So the comparison is between a month ahead product by the NWS/CPC and a 60 month ahead and counting product by DynaPred. Compared climate variables are monthly mean temperature (MMT) and monthly cumulative precipitation. 

The full DynaPred Detailed Model adds the other half of the story and provides higher accuracy, spatial and temporal resolution required for certain uses.    Oregon CD#1 (Coastal) precipitation beginning 200101 is an ongoing  example  Such services are available on a contractual basis. 

The following FREE temperature and precipitation predictions have been made available to the public via this website and other distribution means near middle of the preceding month predicted.  The most current month is also available under What's New.  Public use and further distribution is permitted with appropriate source attribution as already contained in the GIF  file as released (JPG available upon request).  Scheduled release dates (Tuesday prior to third Thursday) and times are shown, but are subject to change:

 Please click on the navigation bar above in order to select the desired month as released.

DynaPred Atlas 1st Stage (Seasonal) Prediction Public Release Schedule CY 2011 
  
Product                (yyyymm)   Release  Time            Date

Seasonal(1stStage)      201101

1500CST (2100UT)   20101214

Seasonal(1stStage)      201102

1500CST (2100UT)   20110118

Seasonal(1st Stage)     201103

1500CST (2100UT)   20110215

Seasonal(1st Stage)     201104

1500CDT (2000UT)   20110315

Seasonal(1st Stage)     201105

1500CDT (2000UT)   20110419

Seasonal(1st Stage)     201106

1500CDT (2000UT)   20110517

Seasonal(1st Stage)     201107

1500CDT (2000UT)   20110614

Seasonal(1st Stage)     201108

1500CDT (2000UT)   20110719

Seasonal(1st Stage)     201109

1500CDT (2000UT)   20110816

Seasonal(1st Stage)     201110

1500CDT (2000UT)   20110913

Seasonal(1st Stage)     201111

1500CDT (2000UT)   20111018

Seasonal(1st Stage)     201112

 1500CST (2100UT)   20111115

Seasonal(1st Stage)     201201

1500CST (2100UT)   20111213

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