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Dynamic Predictables LLC,   Columbia, MO 65205-1365, USA       dynapred@dynapred.com   tele +1.573.815.0520                        multi-year, site-specific and regional climate prediction                 

20210412.  In the United States, the state of Colorado contains headwaters of five noted drainage systems.  The associated precipitation and temperture in Colorado affect primary downstream water resources. The National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) has designated four major and one minor River drainages for Colorado.  Dynamic Predictables has predicted at monthly time step Colorado's five climate divisions precipitation using their Atlas First Stage Model (DP1SM) and the Detailed Model since 2002.  DynaPred's Atlas detailed predictions are displayed below the CPC map.  Walsh 1W precipitation prediction through 202212 is displayed below the CO01 Arkansas Drainage prediction.  Descriptive interpretations are embedded.  DynaPred retains ownership of these precipiation predictions and provides them free at no cost for public and private use in the spirit of public service. 20210627. In Baca County,Walsh 1W display 2010-2512 is added of same prediction. Also Campo 7S displaying prediction through 202512 is added. 20220121. Added in CO01, Lamar CO precip prediction displaying through 202512.

The Five Climate Divisions are:
CO01, Arkansas Drainage
CO02, Colorado Drainage
CO03, Kansas Drainage
CO04, Platte Drainage
CO05, Rio Grande Drainage
as displayed in this NOAA/NWS/Climate Prediction Center state map:

20220330.Comment with revisions 20220504
Colorado precipitation predictions for climate divisions and single weather stations can be in error for several reasons.  Sometimes a reasonably expected error is in the direction of what is happening in the larger geographic area.  For this area and this time, approzimately the estern 3/5 of CONUS is in some stage of increasing drought. Increased dryness in intensity, expanse or duration is the relevant context for the Colorado precipitation predictions presented here with updated observations through February 2022.  The individual weather stations may predict with higher accuracy than the aggregated data in the climate divisions.  In case of Baca County Colorado for example the Walsh 1W coop 058793 predicted most accurately the 2011-2012 drought well in advance when approximately 20 regional stations ran concurrently did not.  Similarly in 2021-22 the Campo 7S coop 051268 predicted best the drought intensity observed since 202107 through 202202 when predictions of other stations in the region did not—especially the exceptionally dry August through December 2021. As usual reality has been ahead of theory. With possible exceptions of May and July 2022, Campo's summer 2022 predicts dry. Remainder 2002 Colorado and upper Platte Drainages Much Below Average.  Above Average wind speeds exhibit similar pattern to the peaking first week of May 1982.


colorado

CO01ArkansasDrainagePcp189501-201401-2204-2212L9corlIntrprtDynaPred
COWalsh1WpcpCO058793Data1895-201507-202204Dsply2015-25L8correlInterpDynaPred
COWalsh1WpcpCO058793DataIn1895-201507-2204Display1998-2025L8stat4InterpDynaPred
COcampo7Spcp051268-1895-201507-2204Dsply2015-2025L8correlInterpretDynaPred
COcampo7Spcpc051268-1895-201507-2204Dsply1998-2025L8stat4Intrp_DynaPred
COlamarpcp054770-1895-201507-2204Display2015-25L8corl
CO02ColoradoDrngePcp1895-201401-2204-2212corlInterpretDynaPred
CO03KansasDrngePcp1895-201401-2204-2212L8corlInterpretDynaPred
CO04PlatteDrngePcp1895-201401-2204-2212L8corlInterpretDynaPred
CO05RioGrandeDrngePcp1895-201701-2204-2212L8corlInterpretDynaPred
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