|
20111024. Released Monday October 24, 2011 at 0900 CDT (1400 GMT).Commentary by Dynapred's Al Peterlin--Predicting the dynamics of
Monday's weekly USDA/NASS Crop Condition Report
Precipitation totals were not excessive across the nation last week, but in the driest part of the year for many areas, the eastern third
of the nation (including the eastern Corn Belt) did see enough moisture to slow drydown and limit field access. The eastern Seaboard and the west were mild. There was a real fall chill through the Nation's
midsection.
The week ahead will be rather moist, but the week 2 outlook (The first week of November) bodes warmer and drier. Only the Pacific
Northwest and New England will be moist.
Winter is on many minds, and the NWS Climate Prediction Center is fixated by a chilling La Nina. The northern two thirds of the nation
could see a rather wet winter, although a dry southern third of the nation includes the parched portions of Texas and Oklahoma. The NOAA winter outlook for temperatures is more minimalistic with the South
(Texas and Oklahoma) warmer than usual. The Northern Plains into the Great Lakes states will be cooler than usual. NWS offers no prediction on temperature for much of the Corn belt the East and New England. The wild
card, of course is La Nina and the Arctic Oscillation (a more scientific term for cold air breaking free from Central Canada) which can add a chilling nip to the Middle Atlantic States into New England at any time.
The issue for agriculture will be drought in the Southern Plains. Only winter precipitation can really break a drought, and it seems as
if winter wheat will suffer a thirst once again. End pre-NASS Commentary 20111024.
|
