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What's New . . .

(Leading few items may be out of chronological sequence-- see or click here Chronological Sequence below.  Topical Press Releases such as ENSO and the like, appear at top of this section. 

20160602. 20160701 at AASC2016 in Santa Fe NM 'Forecasting Droughts' by Gregg Suhler.
20170626.  Click on lined text to open 'Drought Forecasting' from AASC2016 in Santa Fe.

20141220Rodrigues is the easternmost sizable island in the Indian Ocean nation of Mauritius MU), geographically grouped with Africa.  Official GHCN weather station on Rodrigues is 12961988 (lat1941S-lon06325E) where 129  is Mauritius GHCN country code.  Rodrigues MU GHCN precipitation data runs from 1951-present (201410, most recent month at time of initial posting on dynapred.com website.)
 

20100215.  AAAS2006 Annual Meeting symposium #127 on "El Nino Predictability" showed the derivation from the interactive Navier-Stokes equations of the binary subharmonic sequence often found in forced systems, Earth's climate being among them.  A particular but oft-obtained and maybe the most interesting system response with feedback solutions are given by the following formula for periods T
as multiples of the primary driving force period To
T(N,M) = [(2**N)n(To)/m]N,n,m=1,2,3...M                                                                 for each sequence N.  In case of Earth's climate, this generates a sequence of 2**N years where N is +/- 1,2,3,... so that (here) partial sequences are obtained:
  ...1/16, 1/8, 1/4, 1/2, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64...
This period doubling phenomenon is a particular case of the more general solution form for m,n=1,2,3... which has been called an "ultrasubharmonic (USH) sequence" (Enns and McGuire, 2001).
Most importantly such phenomena are found in nature.  This approach provides explanatory power for what is observed and provides a fundamental basis for monthly time-step, multi-year prediction as practiced by Dynamic Predictables. A shortened version of the AAAS2006 presentation was made at American Association of State Climatologists Annual Meeting in 2006 (below) and click on 23-01-Suhler-Enso.ppt presentation in the zipped Day 3 presentations file.
http://www.stateclimate.org/meetings/default.php?meeting_year=2006 
Or one can download the AASC2006Suhler (535kb) file, with apologies to AAAS where we are a bit overdue on publishing from the 2006 Annual Meeting.

 

20100114. DynaPred's first prediction chart, Nino3 Anomaly began 199805, is retired after 140 months.  Comments, performance under Featured Chart on DPhome.  Also at Nino3-9805 under Predictions/El-Nino.

20091215.  DynaPred presentation at Japan agency METI/RIETI Brown Bag Lunch of 20071204 has link posted on DP Home Page about 4 inches down from top.

20090609.  Atlas, the new 1-5 year forward temperature and precipitation product is introduced at its own page clickable page, ATLAS.  Accordingly this website will be in various stages of makeover until the process is completed.

20090317.  Site-specific prediction location Sherwood3N, North Dakota, USA debuts with its own banner under Predictions.  Monthly precipitation input data ended 200106 and the prediction was first shown at a NOAA workshop July 22, 2004.

20041116.  Dynamic Predictables 1st Stage Model Performance Comparison with CPC '30-day Forecast from 200207-xx12.  Compares DP's 5+years ahead with NWS 30 day.

CHRONOLOGICAL SEQUENCE (REVERSE, recent first)

Weekly Commentary:  Usually by 0830 Central (US) the morning ahead of USDA's NASS Crop Progress Report.  

20111031. Released Monday October 31, 2011 at 1400 CDT (1900 GMT).Commentary by Dynapred's Al Peterlin--Predicting the dynamics of Monday's weekly USDA/NASS Crop Condition Report.

Weekly weather conditions were supportive of harvest activities across much of the Corn and Bean Belt. Some moisture dampened the eastern Corn Belt, but the talk of the week will be the weekend snow storm, probably triggered by global warming, across the higher elevations of the east.  Denver had some early snow, but the population of the east's major cities does not live in the heartland, so little news there.

The cotton crop remains in poor condition. Corn and bean harvest continues, but crop production has not and will not rise. A bit of moisture dampened West Texas and Oklahoma, proving it does rain, but more, much more is needed and needed now. End pre-NASS Crop Condition Commentary 20111031.

20111024. Released Monday October 24, 2011 at 0900 CDT (1400 GMT).Commentary by Dynapred's Al Peterlin--Predicting the dynamics of Monday's weekly USDA/NASS Crop Condition Report

Precipitation totals were not excessive across the nation last week, but in the driest part of the year for many areas, the eastern third of the nation (including the eastern Corn Belt) did see enough moisture to slow drydown and limit field access.  The eastern Seaboard and the west were mild. There was a real fall chill through the Nation's midsection.

The week ahead will be rather moist, but the week 2 outlook (The first week of November) bodes warmer and drier. Only the Pacific Northwest and New England will be moist.

Winter is on many minds, and the NWS Climate Prediction Center is fixated by a chilling La Nina. The northern two thirds of the nation could see a rather wet winter, although a dry southern third of the nation includes the parched portions of Texas and Oklahoma.  The NOAA winter outlook for temperatures is more minimalistic with the South (Texas and Oklahoma) warmer than usual. The Northern Plains into the Great Lakes states will be cooler than usual. NWS offers no prediction on temperature for much of the Corn belt the East and New England. The wild card, of course is La Nina and the Arctic Oscillation (a more scientific term for cold air breaking free from Central Canada) which can add a chilling nip to the Middle Atlantic States into New England at any time.

The issue for agriculture will be drought in the Southern Plains. Only winter precipitation can really break a drought, and it seems as if winter wheat will suffer a thirst once again. End pre-NASS Commentary 20111024.

 

DynaPred's Atlas First Stage Model Prediction maps as released for public use.  Showing last two releases.  See release schedule at bottom of DP Home page.  Different layouts, views on DP Home page and under Predictions...Seasonal.

20111115, Tuesday November 15, 2011.  Covering all 344 continental US NCDC climate divisions, DynaPred's Seasonal (1st Stage) Model Outlook downloads follow.  Then  Press Release:  December (201112) DynaPred's Seasonal (First-Stage) Model Outlook:

December (201112) Temperature, download   dynapred_1112temp.gif (104kb)

December (201112) Precipitation,  download   dynapred_1112prec.gif (82kb)

 

Press Release: Dynamic Predictables 201112 OUTLOOK issued 3 PM CDT 20111115

Dynamic Predictables releases for pubic use their Atlas First Stage predictions for 30-day mean temperature and cumulative precipitation on the Tuesday prior to the third Thursday of each preceding month. Graphics with pattern and trend information for the United States NCDC climate divisions can be viewed at: http://www.dynamicpredictables.com

201112 temperatures predict Above Average west of a line from Chicago to New Orleans. Then temps predict Near Average for about a 400 mile band eastward. Appalachian Mountains east predict Below Average. 

December 2011 precipitation predicts in three bands.  The northern Great Plains predicts Below Average.  Then a spotty wet band predicts from the central West angling ENE through a wet New England. Then a dry band from border Southwest bulging into central Great Plains then tending average to spotty dry across the Southeast.

** All areas have a prediction. There is no default to climatology (EC), i.e. an equal likelihood of ABOVE AVERAGE, NEAR AVERAGE, and BELOW AVERAGE.**

DYNAPRED 1STSTAGE (SEASONAL) MODEL DECEMBER 201112

ST   TMP PCP   ST   TMP PCP   ST   TMP PCP        

WA    A   A    OR W  A   W    OR E  W   W         

CA CO A   A    CA IN A   A    ID    A   A         

NV    A   A    MT    W   D    AZ    A   D         

WY    W   A    UT    A   A    CO    W   W         

NM    A   D    ND    W   D    SD    W   W         

NE    W   W    KS    A   D                        

OK    W   D    TX    W   D    MN    W   A         

IA    A   A    MO    A   D    AR    W   D         

LA    A   D    WI    A   A    IL    A   W         

MS    A   D    OH    C   A    KY    A   A         

MI    A   A    IN    A   A                        

TN    A   A    AL    A   D    NY    C   W         

VT    C   W    NH    C   W    ME    A   W         

MA    C   W    CT    C   W    RI    C   W         

PA    C   A    NJ    C   A                        

WV    A   A    MD    C   A    DE    C   A         

VA    C   A    NC    C   A    SC    C   D         

GA    C   D    FL    C   D                        

                 LEGEND                  
  TEMP TO NORMAL         PCPN   TO MEDIAN       
  W -ABOVE (WARM)        W – ABOVE (WET)      
  A –NEAR AVERAGE        A – NEAR AVERAGE     
  C -BELOW (COOL)        D – BELOW (DRY)        
Contact:   GREGG SUHLER at 1-573-815-0520 or
SUHLERG@DYNAPRED.COM
or AL PETERLIN  at 1-717-731-8804 and
Al.Peterlin@dynapred.com.

January 201201 Temperature and Precipitation Atlas First-Stage Predictions will be released on Tuesday December 13, 2011 at 3PM CST (2100GMT).

 

20111018 Tuesday October 18, 2011.  Covering all 344 continental US NCDC climate divisions, DynaPred's Seasonal (1st Stage) Model Outlook downloads follow.  Then  Press Release:  November (201111) DynaPred's Seasonal (First-Stage) Model Outlook:

November (201111) Temperature, download   dynapred_1111temp.gif (102kb)

November (201111) Precipitation,  download   dynapred_1111prec.gif (91kb)

 

Press Release: Dynamic Predictables 201111 OUTLOOK issued 3 PM CDT 20111018

Dynamic Predictables releases for pubic use their Atlas First Stage predictions for 30-day mean temperature and cumulative precipitation on the Tuesday prior to the third Thursday of each preceding month. Graphics with pattern and trend information for the United States NCDC climate divisions can be viewed at: http://www.dynamicpredictables.com

201111 temperatures predict Above Average west of the Mississippi River. Atlantic Coastal states predict Below Average. Remainder predicts Near Average. 

November 2011 precipitation predicts wet only a few spots in Great Basin with West otherwise Average.  High Average to Above Average precipitation predicts for New England. Dryness predicts to continue in the Great Plains, Rocky Mountains, and across the South.

** All areas have a prediction. There is no default to climatology (EC), i.e. an equal likelihood of ABOVE AVERAGE, NEAR AVERAGE, and BELOW AVERAGE.**

DYNAPRED 1STSTAGE (SEASONAL) MODEL OCTOBER 201110

ST   TMP PCP   ST   TMP PCP   ST   TMP PCP        

WA    A   A    OR W  A   A    OR E  W   A         

CA CO A   A    CA IN A   A    ID    W   A         

NV    A   A    MT    W   A    AZ    A   D         

WY    W   D    UT    A   W    CO    W   D         

NM    A   D    ND    W   D    SD    W   D         

NE    W   D    KS    W   D                        

OK    A   D    TX    W   D    MN    W   D         

IA    W   A    MO    A   D    AR    A   D         

LA    A   D    WI    A   D    IL    A   D         

MS    A   D    OH    A   A    KY    A   A         

MI    A   A    IN    A   A                        

TN    A   A    AL    A   D    NY    C   A         

VT    C   A    NH    C   A    ME    A   A         

MA    A   A    CT    A   W    RI    A   A         

PA    C   A    NJ    A   A                        

WV    A   A    MD    C   A    DE    C   A         

VA    A   A    NC    A   A    SC    C   D         

GA    C   D    FL    C   A                        

           LEGEND                  
  TEMP TO NORMAL         PCPN   TO MEDIAN       
  W -ABOVE (WARM)        W – ABOVE (WET)      
  A –NEAR AVERAGE        A – NEAR AVERAGE     
  C -BELOW (COOL)        D – BELOW (DRY)        
Contact:   GREGG SUHLER at 1-573-815-0520 or
SUHLERG@DYNAPRED.COM
or AL PETERLIN  at 1-717-731-8804 and
Al.Peterlin@dynapred.com.

December 201112 Temperature and Precipitation Atlas First-Stage Predictions will be released on Tuesday November 15, 2011 at 3PM CST (2100GMT).

 

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