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Dynamic Predictables LLC,   Columbia, MO 65205-1365, USA       dynapred@dynapred.com   tele +1.573.815.0520                        multi-year, site-specific and regional climate prediction                 

OR01p0012-1707-1812L9crrlcntxt

20140925.  Correlations to the unsmoothed monthly Observed are included.  Note correlations over 200101-201408 for 30 yrAv, 1stStageModel, Predictions Near, Whole, and Average (not shown) for 13 years and 8 months are in range 0.74-0.79.

20140305.  Last ncdc-cirs OR01p observed data points: 201309=7.63 in., 201310=1.78in., 1310=5.54in.; 201312=4.35in.;201401=4.98in.
20140402.  NCDC transition to grid based data for what have been NCDC-CIRS climate division data occurred with 201402 data.  The CIRS data is maintained in archive at ftp:ftp//ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cirs/drd ; new at ftp:ftp//ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cirs/nclimdiv.
See .txt and .pdf files on the cirs (aka drd aka TD-9640 time series) to nclimdiv (gridded on same climate division) are on latter nclimdiv link.

20140305.  Note Precipitation observed appears to be valley-splitting similar to peak splitting around summer 2013 low.  Unusual.

20090317.  Belatedly noted, 200901-02-03 predict below average, with end months in 2009 above average
20080509. Last half 2008 predicts to be lower precipitation than average.

20050107.  Lower than average precipitation during November and December 2004 followed moderately above average precipitation September-October.  A strong 4 year cycle evidenced in recent years prompts pattern comparisons of October, November, December for 2000 (5.89, 4.68, 6.25) and 2004 (7.06, 4.74, 9.67) relative to 1971-2000 monthly averages (5.07, 11.23, 12.14).  So far in 2004-05 rainy season, precipitation levels for non-Coastal Oregon have fared slightly higher  than this Coastal division.  This model's longer term dynamics (Whole) predicted lower precipitation for months 1,2,3 in 2005 but basically average in fall 2004.  An experimental model (results unpublished) with input data ending 200308 predicted well through 200411 but lower by several inches for 200412, and predicts above average for 200501-02-03.  Without trying to resolve differences here between the two model approaches or predicted results, Oregon CD01 appears to experience fall 2004 patterns similar in some ways to 2000-01 or 1976-77, two periods of problematic low precipitation.     

20030417.  Oregon Climate Division #1 (Coastal) has experienced lower than average precipitation since the spring of 2000. The most dramatic and consequential event was the dry winter of 2000-01 when the primary wet months of November-March received 46% of the previous 30 year's average. Interior Pacific Northwest areas experienced similar decline in precipitation with large adverse impacts.

     DynaPred's Detailed Model Prediction beginning January 2001 illustrates the complex interaction of longer-term climate dynamics and shorter-term dynamics. The relatively dry tone since spring 2000 reflects more the nearby climate dynamics during 2001 and 2002. Winter 2001-02 illustrated well how long-term dynamics and short-term dynamics can combine to generate the observed November-January precipitation pattern.

     The continued dry undertone from nearby dynamics is expected to continue through 2003 with long term dynamics also being below average through late summer before both start to move upward through end of 2003. Even then, the long term dynamics outlook is wetter than average and the short term dynamics component is below average but importantly trending up as illustrated by the respective Residuals in the chart.

     A similar chart with prediction beginning 200102 was presented at the AASC Annual Meeting in August 2001. An error was soon discovered that was not present in this 200101 beginning prediction, and the latter chart has since been shown on several occasions. The above chart was shown December 7 at the AGU Fall 2002 meeting Hydrology section (H-61)on Drought Prediction in the context of illustrating the climate dynamics at work.

     As mentioned in the About. . .Methods section of this website, for Oregon Climate Division I precipitation the key climate contributions occur in ways associated with the Chandler Wobble near 15 months and the Quasi-Triennial Oscillation (QTO) between 36 and 48 months.

 

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