Dynamic Predictables LLC,   Columbia, MO 65205-1365, USA       dynapred@dynapred.com   tele +1.573.815.0520                        multi-year, site-specific and regional climate prediction                 

20160620.DynaPred Website quick Internal links box:
Predictions Active with ongoing updated observations—oldest to newest--through 201610:
1.  Nino3 Anomaly Sea Surface Temperatures (SST): InputDataEndings Nino3AN199804 ,
     Nino3AN200304 same page scroll down.  Nino3AN199804_2002-06 Prediction                    Components completed subset 2002-06  scroll down ~ 30 inches on this Home Page.
2.  Oregon01 Coastal Climate Division Precipitation, Input Data End 200012: OR01pcp.
3.  North Dakota Sherwood3N precipitation: NDsherwood3Npcp200106
4.  Rodrigues, Mauritius in Indian Ocean precipitation: RodriguesMUpcp200802
5.  AASC2016SantaFe PPT presentation on multiyear 'Drought Forecasting'. added 20170626
6.  Colorado Precipitation Predictions by Climate Division through 202212; also Walsh 1W station in Baca County Prediction dataend 20210 Added 20210412. Prediction 201508-2512 added 20210604.  Note droughts LH2019 thru 2020 predicted and upcoming LH 2023 LH2024. 20210627. Campo7S precipitation prediction added below Walsh1W prediction w 2 displays.

20170726.  Handout AASC20170630 Asheville NC, Nino 3 predictions from 1993, 1998, 2003
updated observed through 201705.  See under Nino3 link in box above and in What's New.

DynaPred's ATLAS 1-5 year product line is found on its own ATLAS page or on navigation bars.  Downloadable Atlas PDFs (internal link) or at bottom of the ATLAS page.

20160620.  Tmindv US climate divisions temperature monthly minimum time series  added.  20160427. On the US climate divisions format (nclimdiv) the Tmaxdv time series from 2000-most recent month has been added alongside the climdiv-pcpndv and climdiv-tmpcdv time series on DynaPred's Support page. Source is National Centers for Environmental Information (formerly National Climatic Data Center, NOAA, US Dept of Commerce).

#NOTE: 20141220. DynaPred website is under revision with completion expected 20141120.  Some components are transitioned out and some transitioning onto site. New: Rodrigues, Mauritius (MU) precipitation prediction under Predictions on navigations bars or click above.  

Welcome to the Dynamic Predictables website. This DP Home page introduces key Dynamic Predictables features and products then provides further links highlighting our climate prediction at monthly time step both regional and site specific.  A few noted presentations with linkages are mentioned, thumbnail maps of the ATLAS  month ahead US mainland prediction follows for the 2012 drought year, a monthly featured chart, then more...

20120214.  Atlas 1st Stage Model Predictions public release is under reconsideration.  The last released month was 201112.  Comments are invited through info@dynapred.com .  Previous predictions charts such as Nino3 and Oregon coastal climate division 01 precipitation continue to be updated as does monthly NCDC-CIRS climate division data under Support.  20120517 Only occasional releases, as below, will be made until further notice.

20120601.  Production Potential 2012, a special Commentary by Al Peterlin on CONUS Agricultural Production prospects in June, July, August 2012.  For larger GIF charts click June, July, August.  Underlying precipitation dataset used for DynaPred's Atlas First Stage Predictions  is the Texas A&M University FNEP dataset on the NCDC-CIRS climate division basis.  20130403.  Download 2012fnepPredCompareNCDC-CIRSobserved in MSWord2003 .

Dynamic Predictables elsewhere:
20100215.  "A Decade of Change?", by Professor Anthony R Lupo on http://www.icecap.us used DynaPred research and 2**N forced system response to contrast the past decade as seen through a long term equilibrium approach with the nonequilibrium dynamics approach DynaPred uses.  A binary subharmonic time series linear combination of 8, 64, 256 years is contrasted with the UK(CRU-HADLEY),NOAA/NCDC,NASA/GISS Global Temperature Series charts from mid, late 1800s through late 2000s.  See for yourself on the icecap website, search for Lupo, or download the corresponding file here.  Natural dynamics, anyone?

20081212.  Business Profile in Columbia Business Times on October 17, 2008, entitled (click on) "Dynamic Principles"

20071204.  Gregg Suhler talk at Japan government agency METI/RIETI Brown Bag Lunch
 "Climate Change: Implications, Consequences and Predictability - Plus Politics"
Handouts [PDF:232KB]      http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/bbl/07120401.pdf  
Transcript  http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/bbl/07120401.html talk with open discussion

20060304.  Gregg Suhler addresses National Farmers Union Annual Convention in Denver Colorado on climate predictability and agriculture.  Downloadable PPT file is DPatNFU20060304 (603kb) and NFU's website is  http://www.nfu.org .

20060217.  Doug O'Brien and Gregg Suhler at American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) 2006 Annual Meeting in St Louis speak on "Nino3 Intradecadal Predictability: Regional and Site Specific Implications".  Suhler co-organized the Symposium "El Nino Predictability" searchable  http://www.aaas.org See comment, link to abbreviated PPT What's New 20100215.

20120517.  Featured Active Prediction Chart.  Shown below is the Nino3 Anomaly Prediction shown under Predictions/El Nino with Input Data End 200304 (replacing 199804 on 20130913), as presented initially at AASC2003 Annual Meeting and posted summer 2003 on this website.  Initial prediction showed out through CY 2009.  The same prediction with forward years through 2013 shows below that 23 months correlation of 0.77 emerges from the approximately four years modulation that resulted in a lowering of Nino3 anomalies of approximately 0.35 C from that previously predicted that had over 97 months (199805-200605) achieved 0.65 correlation.  Observations are updated through 201309 and are generally updated around 10th of following month.  Note: chart switched back to Input Data End 199804. Discussion only retained relevant to 200808 centered peak splitting.  20181129: Chart switched back to InputDataEnd200304--with local peak 2018-19.  InputDataEnd199804 predicted local peak El Nino threshold a year later at 2019-20. Both shown El-Nino page.

2020722.  Nino3 Observed and DyaPred Prediction Average Pearson correlations over interval 201805-2006 are running near 0.60.  Earlier relatively high correlations are described below and are interspersed with low and even negative correlations especially in the case of peak (amplitude) splittings occurring even sequentially centered near  200410-12, 200808, and 201207-09.  Further, please note that such as these SST splittings have been observed in precipitation prediction in USA states centered in North Dakota 2017, California 2018, Colorado 2019.

20130915.Last NOAA/NWS/CPC data point shown: 201308.  Note interval 200605-1006 negative correlation may be seen as due to peak splitting with observed central peak lower than predicted and smaller side peaks increasing higher while occurring at/near dates of predicted minor peaks.  Also note overall average temperature for interval decreased by 0.35-0.50C and appears to be persisting with subsequent lower observed than predicted.  Correlation since 201006 has been in vicinity of 0.75 which is higher than the 0.65 correlation for first eight years.

Monthly Featured Chart:  Retirement below:  DynaPred's first publicly shown chart as presented at AASC1998 Annual Meeting in Duluth, Minnesota, was website posted and subsequently  presented and evaluated through 140 months (11.67 years) from 199805-200912.  As noted a computation error was discovered and corrected in 2003 after 5 years.  Please see the 2003 computation-error corrected predictions (dataend 199804 and 200304) out through 201213.   Note:
1. The Observed Anomaly Standard Deviation over the 140 months was 0.71 C. AvAbsErr was 0.76C.
2.  First 4 years were good, second four years not-so-good, last 3.67 years were good.
3.  Beginning with year 5 although amplitudes were often problematic, the max/min turning percentage topped 75%.

NINO3 (90W-150W, 5N-5S) SST Anomaly Prediction was made with data through 199804.  This chart shows the average of long term and nearby dynamics.   Other components are active contributors.  See the 5 line chart for 2002-06 in Predictions/El Nino  and below as displayed on website mid-2005 through 2006.  Achieved accuracy for given modes was on order of 0.02C Average Error and 0.20C Average Absolute Error for two consecutive 15 month periods.    Observed NINO3 through 200707 showed similar accuracy to the shown immediately below 200210-200503 period.  2007 and beyond additional details was available to customers. 

Website last updated 20240916