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20141220.  Rodrigues is the easternmost sizable island in the Indian Ocean nation of Mauritius, geographically grouped with Africa.  Official
GHCN weather station on Rodrigues is 12961988000 (lat1941S-lon06325E) where Mauritius is GHCN country code 129.  Rodrigues MU GHCN precipitation data runs from 1951-present (201410, most recent month at time of initial posting on dynapred.com website.)  The precipitation prediction was prepared for IMAAFS conference in Addis Ababa Ethiopia October 1-3, 2014.


20141220.  DynaPred's Rodrigues MU precipitation prediction comments and interpretation from dataending 200802 through 2020:

0.  Blind prediction beginning 200803 predicts fairly general patterns within years and across years. 
Also note departures from seasonal averages (pink line). Especially note predicted 3 years in advance
the observed 2011 drought. Also note generally dry 2014 with exceptions of wet March, July.
1.  long period component peaked 2007, bottoming now mid 2014, then rising to FirstHalf 2020.
Description is best seen not in peaks but the larger number of observations that are average to below average last 7 years.
2.  Rainy season predicts wetter 2015,2016, dry 2017, wetter again 2018,2019, dryer again in 2020.
3.  2015 detail, wetter rainy season with peak(s) months 2,3 above 20cm, but then later likely to
average 50% or less of 1978-07 Average
4.  2016 detail, wet rainy season but not as wet as 2015, still one month likely 201602 above 20cm. 
But then becoming not quite as dry as latter 2015, but dryness lasting longer.20160427: dry 02-03 related 8,16 yr periods?
 5.  2017 detail, main dry predicted in rainy season, then nearer average later.
 6.  2018 detail, predicts likely to have sharper, narrower wet season (above 20cm peak) 
7.  2019 detail, predicts to have longer wet season going in and coming out, and above average through rest of year.
8.  2020 detail, predicts moderately wetter early in rainy season but then turning drier 202003-04 and above average rest of year.

20141220.  DATA.  DP's GS guesstimated 20 missing data points for Rodrigues precipiation in 1951-201408 time frame.  The
remote island location limited visible data sources for usual interpolation/replacement methods.  One source added 1996-present.
Using Rodrigues InselAP data, read from chart online http://www.woweather.com/weather/maps/city, and additional MCDW
data resulted in five data points being adjusted--all in the predicted-out-of-input data range later than 200802.
1. 201102 85.2cm was replaced by 8.52cm. initial was multiplied by 10.
2. 201402 61.7cm was replaced by 6.17cm, again ghcnv2 dataset listed value was erroneously multiplied by 10.
3. Missing Values substituted with reported values estimated from Rodrigues Insel AP: 201011=5.0cm, 201101=7.7cm, 201203=8.6cm .  

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