|
20180215. Note 2016-17 dryness passed over to shifted August peak and predicted WET Jan, Feb 2018.
20141220. DynaPred's Rodrigues MU precipitation prediction comments and interpretation from dataending 200802 through 2020:
0. Blind prediction beginning 200803 predicts fairly general patterns within years and across
years.
Also note departures from seasonal averages (pink line). Especially note predicted 3 years in advance
the observed 2011 drought. Also note generally dry 2014 with exceptions of wet March,
July.
1. long period component peaked 2007, bottoming now mid 2014, then rising to FirstHalf 2020.
Description is best seen not in peaks but the larger number of observations that are average to below
average last 7 years.
2. Rainy season predicts wetter 2015,2016, dry 2017, wetter again 2018,2019, dryer again in 2020.
3. 2015 detail, wetter rainy season with peak(s) months 2,3 above 20cm, but
then later likely to
average 50% or less of 1978-07 Average
4. 2016 detail, wet rainy season but not as wet as 2015, still one month likely 201602 above 20cm.
But then becoming not quite as dry
as latter 2015, but dryness lasting longer.20160427: dry 02-03 related 8,16 yr periods?
5. 2017 detail, main dry predicted in rainy season, then nearer average later.
6. 2018 detail,
predicts likely to have sharper, narrower wet season (above 20cm peak)
7. 2019 detail, predicts to have longer wet season going in and coming out, and above average through rest of year.
8.
2020 detail, predicts moderately wetter early in rainy season but then turning drier 202003-04 and above average rest of year.
|
