Press Release: April 29, 2005
ENSO Two-Slide Step: May upswing; Christmas bow.
A nearly two-year, mild El Nino finishes with an upsurge in May, and then Eastern Pacific Sea Surface temperatures bow to Christmas
lows with broad global impact implications.
Columbia, Missouri--Dynamic Predictables today suggested a 23-month long, weak El Nino or warm
period will end with a sharp uptick through May 2005. Nino 3 Eastern Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures have been above average since July 2003 but never quite to the 1.0 degree C historical El Nino
threshold. May temperatures are expected to range 0.90 to 1.35C above the 1950-79 average. With a +0.38 Celsius average for 21-months through March 2005, the duration of this event has been slightly longer
than average and slightly milder than typical warm events.
After the May 2005 peak, Nino3 Eastern Pacific region sea surface temperatures will fall to
mild to moderately cool La Nina levels (range -0.3 to -1.0 degree C) by Christmas 2005.
Since July 2003, the ENSO event commonly referred to as El Nino has been centered in the central to western
Pacific, away from the historical El Nino regions just off the Peru-Ecuador coast. The ENSO Two-Slide Step refers to observed NINO3 Anomaly tracking two DynaPred prediction modes from October 2002 through
March 2005. Details with chart are available at http://www.dynapred.com .
NINO3 observations tracked the main long term climate dynamics mode during the 15 months 200210-200312 and then
primarily tracked Dynamic Predictables 1st Stage Model the next 15 months, 200401-200503. Average Error on order of 0.02 C and Average Absolute Error on order of 0.2 C in context of corresponding
months' Standard Deviations (1950-79 basis) of 0.80 C was obtained. NINO3 last showed this type of sequential mode persistence in the early to mid 1990s.
El Nino conditions frequently imply generous moisture for crop growing regions of the United States with La Nina trending drier. The
reverse is true for many Equatorial and Southern Hemisphere regions.
Dynamic Predictables is a private company providing climate predictions and climate impact assessment for
the agriculture, construction, distribution, energy and media industries. Monthly time-step predictions are available at web site: http://www.dynamicpredictables.com .
Gregg Suhler: +1-573-815-0520
Albert Peterlin: +1-717-329-4748
Dynamic Predictables, LLC