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Dynamic Predictables LLC,   Columbia, MO 65205-1365, USA       dynapred@dynapred.com   tele +1.573.815.0520                        multi-year, site-specific and regional climate prediction                 

Nino3AN_9805-0912L3Final02

Monthly Featured Chart:
20100114. Retirement:  DynaPred's first published chart as presented at AASC1998 Annual Meeting in Duluth, Minnesota, was presented and evaluated through 140 months (11.67 years) from 199805-200912.  As noted a computation error was discovered and corrected in 2003 after 5 years.  Note:
1.
The Observed Anomaly Standard Deviation over the 140 months was 0.71 C. AvAbsErr was 0.76C.
2.  First 4 years were good, second four years not-so-good, last 3.67 years were good.
3.  Beginning year 5 although amplitudes were often problematic, the max/min turning percentage topped 75%
.

NINO3 Anomaly as first presented at AASC in August 1998.  Standard Error over the first 25 months was 0.34C. This chart has been superceded by NINO3-9804, with the same data ending point 199804 but prediction ran with the current 200305 model.  This chart yet has value with respect to turning points. The 200305 model ran over 200304 ending data is placed under the 199804 ending run at NINO3-9805_NINO3-0304 .  Average annual marginal average absolute error over the first 11 years (132 months) is 0.78 C whereas standard deviation over the same 199805-200904 time frame is 1.15 C.

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