The 2003 software error corrected prediction as first presented at AASC2003 Annual Meeting in Portland, Oregon.  The 2002-2006 prediction range breakout with underlying model detail is presented as a GIF file immediately below and with discussion beginning 19 inches down on the parent El Nino page. Note Average Error and Average Absolute Error levels achieved over consecutive 15 month ranges with the two predictors.

20040427 Press Release:

El Nino Returns

 An El Nino of moderate intensity will return in 2004, although this event
 will be more noteworthy by its longevity than its agriculture impact.
 20040427 -- El Nino Awakens. Agricultural impacts are more
 likely to be noted in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern
 Hemisphere in 2004.

 Since the first quarter of 2003, NINO3 sea surface temperatures have been
 ill defined, that is, neither cool enough to be called La Nina nor warm
 enough to classify as El Nino. So far in 2004, NINO3 sea surface
 temperatures have been positive, but slowly trending toward normal.

 Dynamic Predictables is expecting NINO3 sea surface temperatures to
 reverse trend and to resume warming to weak El Nino levels before Autumn
 2004 and to remain moderately warm thru spring 2005. The intensity of this
 El Nino will be moderate with nowhere near the impact of the 1998
 record-breaking event. By moderate, Dynamic Predictables means amplitudes
 from one to two degrees C above the 1950-1979 average. However, this El
 Nino will be noteworthy in that it will linger thru spring 2005, a significant
 period of time.

 The agricultural impact of El Nino is more evident in the Southern
 Hemisphere than the Northern Hemisphere, and because of the timing of this
 event, beginning in the Southern Hemisphere's 2004 winter and persisting
 into their 2005 summer growing season, Southern Hemispheric impact may be
 significant, with drought a concern. Drought in certain key crop areas and
 Floods in certain others lead the list of concerns.

 El Nino impact in the Northern Hemisphere can be significant along coastal
 areas specifically in the southwest and along the Gulf coast. The
 principle agricultural El Nino impact in the Northern Hemisphere is
 generous to excessive moisture. The timing of this event may mitigate
 agricultural impacts as the 2004 growing season will be well under way
 before the possibility of increased moisture builds. However, even a
 possibility for generous moisture in the July August 2004 crop calendar
 would be beneficial to corn and soybeans, for example. Although the El
 Nino event will tend to diminish before the 2005 growing season, generous
 winter and spring rains would at least imply full soil moisture at the
 beginning of the 2005 crop year.

 A graphic depiction of the NINO3 Sea Surface temperature outlook is
 available at http://www.dynamicpredictables.com

 Monthly outlooks of temperature and precipitation are also available.

 About Dynamic Predictables, LLC. – Dynamic Predictables is a private
 weather, water and climate corporation providing comprehensive weather,
 climate and impact assessment for agriculture, construction, distribution,
 energy, media and custom climatology interests. Sophisticated algorithms
 provide improved definition of time and space applications on a dedicated
 contractual basis. Dynamic Predictables mean monthly outlooks of
 temperature and precipitation are available as much as one full year in
 advance. Climate forecasts are also available for selected international
 locations.

 Contact:
 Gregg Suhler 573-815-0520
 http://www.dynamicpredictables.com    or
 Albert Peterlin 717-329-4748

 Dynamic Predictables, LLC.
 P.O.Box 1365
 Columbia, MO 65202-1365
 (573) 815-0520
 http://www.dynamicpredictables.com
 suhlerg@dynapred.com

 Contact Information This Release
             Al Peterlin
             ERREX
             http://www.dynamicpredictables.com
             +1 7177318804

Excerpted(2002-05) NINO3 Anomaly chart from Nino3-9805_Nino3-0304 webpage, the 1998 data ending prediction at top of the red-linked page.

20030620.  Oh, La Nina, we hardly knew ye!.  Dynamic Predictables indicates in the following Press Release that the nascent La Nina is receding and is predicted to stay in Nada Nina status through 2003 although temperatures will be trending higher. Furthermore, NINO3 in Eastern equatorial Pacific is going to mainly El Nino status in 2004.  Details, including the Press Release are under Predictions...El Nino...NINO3-9805_Nino3-0304 (Please click for chart followed by press release). (This entry out of chronological order.)

20030620.  For Immediate Release: Gregg Suhler; Dynamic Predictables, LLC.; P.O. Box 1365; Columbia, MO 65205-1365  USA: VoxFax +1-(573) 815-0520: URL: http://www.dynamicpredictables.com

La Nina fading into Nada Nina. El Nino to Follow in 2004.

Dynamic Predictables today indicated the budding La Nina (cold tropical eastern Pacific waters) now being recognized by even the most casual observer, is already fading into Nada Nina and will begin a rapid transition into El Nino (warm tropical eastern Pacific waters) by January 2004.  A dip back in NINO3 (geographically eastern Pacific, but nonadjacent to the coast) should occur around May 2004 but then the NINO3 peaking should occur on or around January 2005.

This transitional Nada Nina (eastern tropical sea surface temperatures less than +1 or -1 degree from the norm) pattern will mean the remainder of the 2003 crop-growing season will see variable tropical Pacific Ocean influences. Local geography and already established climate weather patters will dominate. Dynamic Predictables is forecasting near normal July temperatures thru the Corn Belt with some tendency for warmth in the north. Precipitation will trend to the dry side of normal, a pattern many would consider positive unless those trends were to continue and intensify in August. Nada Nina is a descriptive term first used by Al Peterlin to describe the transitional phase of ENSO--that time period when the tropical eastern Pacific temperature regime cannot be called El Nino or La Nina.  La Nada is another term used to describe these neutral tropical SSTs.

El Nino impacts will reign on agricultural interests for the 2004-planting season. Typically, an El Nino pattern implies a promise of generous and timely rains throughout the US grain belts. Rain makes grain (1993 excepted!), so the 2004 crop year could begin on a promising note for US producers even as more droughty impacts threatens crop prospects in other parts of the world.

Dynamic Predictables is a private weather, water and climate corporation providing comprehensive weather, climate and impact assessment of agriculture, construction, distribution, energy and custom climatology interests. Dynamic Predictables mean monthly outlooks of temperature and precipitation are available for one full year and more in advance. Dynamic Predictables Seasonal Model provides a forecast for every climate division in the United States. The graphical El Nino outlook and the July monthly mean temperature and precipitation outlooks are available at web site http://www.dynamicprdictables.com   August outlooks, now available for a fee, will be released to the public on July 15, 2003.

Contact: Al Peterlin 1-717.329.4748 or Gregg Suhler 1-573.815.0520